Recent tariff changes between the U.S. and Canada are expected to impact the HVAC industry. President Trump has imposed tariffs on Canadian imports, including HVAC components, while Prime Minister Trudeau has responded with countermeasures. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has also taken a strong stance. Homeowners may see higher prices and potential supply chain disruptions when purchasing or servicing HVAC systems. Here’s what you need to know. 

U.S. Tariffs on HVAC Equipment 

In early 2025, the U.S. implemented a 25% tariff on Canadian imports and 10% on energy exports. This affects HVAC systems that rely on cross-border supply chains. Many components—such as steel for furnaces and aluminum for air conditioners—are manufactured in one country, assembled in another, and sold back to Canada. These new tariffs increase costs at multiple points in production, which manufacturers may pass on to homeowners through higher equipment prices. 

Canada’s Response and Potential Effects 

Canada imposed a 25% counter-tariff on U.S. goods, but HVAC products were initially excluded due to industry lobbying. However, the government has indicated in their March 4th update that air conditioning units, heat pumps and other appliances will be subjected to tariffs. Even if direct tariffs do not apply to a specific device, the increased costs for U.S. manufacturers could lead to price hikes in Canada. Additionally, Canadian distributors may face supply chain disruptions, leading to potential delays or reduced availability of certain HVAC models. 

Ontario’s Position on the Trade Dispute 

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has backed Canada’s retaliation and suggested additional countermeasures, including restrictions on U.S. imports and energy exports. While this could protect Canadian businesses in the long term, it may also create uncertainty for HVAC companies that rely on U.S. suppliers. Ontario-based distributors and contractors may have to adjust sourcing strategies if trade barriers persist. 

Industry Expert Concerns 

HVAC trade groups, including the Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Institute of Canada (HRAI), have warned that tariffs could increase equipment costs by double digits and disrupt supply chains. Many Canadian distributors rely on American HVAC brands, and delays in obtaining parts could affect repairs and maintenance. U.S. industry representatives, such as the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), also predict higher consumer prices and job losses within the HVAC sector due to increased costs. 

What Homeowners Should Expect 

1. Higher Equipment Prices 

  • If tariffs persist, manufacturers may adjust pricing to account for higher production expenses. 

2. Potential Supply Chain Delays 

  • Some HVAC models and replacement parts may have longer wait times due to cross-border trade disruptions. 
  • Homeowners should plan ahead for system replacements and repairs to avoid potential shortages. 

3. Limited Availability of U.S. Brands 

  • If trade disputes escalate, some American HVAC products may be harder to find or cost more in Canada. 
  • Canadian manufacturers could benefit from increased demand for domestically produced systems. 

Conclusion: Plan Ahead for HVAC Needs 

With tariffs affecting HVAC pricing and supply chains, homeowners should stay informed and plan ahead. If you are considering a new furnace, air conditioner, or heat pump, it may be wise to act sooner rather than later to avoid potential price increases or delays. 

Contact Arseneau Home Comfort today to discuss energy-efficient HVAC solutions and get expert guidance on navigating these industry changes.